I went on holiday for a week and bloody-hell what have you all being doing with the #markets while I was away?
#btc #bitcoin #luna #crypto #nasdaq #capitalism🧵
Luna
In the “crypto” casino, another shit-coin has collapsed to zero again.
Someone noticed that they could do to Luna/UST what Soros did to the bank of England on Black Wednesday and make billions of dollars for themselves while wrecking the backers, so they did.
The rest of crypto is crashing coz of general panic. The ones which are less obviously stupid are crashing a bit less, bitcoin dominance is up. It’s happened against a generally negative background in all the markets, what with the energy-wars and sanctions and the coming supply shocks and energy price-hikes and inflation and stagnation. So the nasdaq and S&P are also dropping.
Do any of these prices reflect actual world economic prospects?
Bitcoin
Crash cos of covid, then pump when the stimulus arrives and the governments push prices up with money-printing, giving from the poor to the rich.
Crashing again when the reality of everyone eventually getting long-covid dawns, and the supply shocks from it, and the inflation stimulus stops.
Then crashing again when the the stagflation and recession and energy-wars and possible nuclear Armageddon starts.
After the 2017 bubble, BTC fell by 80%.
The obviousness of supply-shocks and long-covid for everyone and stagflation and recession and energy-wars and possible nuclear Armageddon, has so far dropped it 20%.
It takes falling another 35% from here to go back to before-bubble prices,
Falling 70 to get to before covid prices as if nothing had happened.
Does bitcoin reflect genuine world economic prospects, modulo it’s own growth?
What is a reasonable reflection of the reality of this disease and consequences?
Dominance
Bitcoin dominance went up about 8% on the collapse of the shit-coin, but a total of 45% hardly reflects the difference between the players in the casino and the gambling chips they use to play.
The casino remains open, people are still falling for the scammers and the shitcoins and the ponzi schemes.
Play in the casino if you want, I do. But even when you win it’s about as moral and difficult as taking money from the fish in a poker game. 
Nasdaq
How about the Nasdaq? That’s doing okay today but is that the bottom? How well is it’s price reflecting the reality of everyone having long-covid at some point in their lives and supply shocks and stagflation and energy-wars and possible nuclear armageddon?
It dropped 30%, got artificially inflated with stimulus and and quantitative easing by 150%, and then in response to the obviousness of supply-shocks and long-covid for everyone and stagflation and recession and energy-wars and possible nuclear Armageddon, it has dropped like 20% from the inflated high.
Does that reflect reality? It was already at the top of the channel.
It is still 60% ABOVE the original market-estimate of covid’s affect before the stimulus, which would also match the bottom of the trend-line for when the world has these regular crises.
After the dotcom bubble, nasdaq fell by 80%.
The banking crisis dropped it’s price 50%.
The obviousness of supply-shocks and long-covid for everyone and stagflation and recession and energy-wars and possible nuclear Armageddon, has so far dropped it 20%.
It takes falling another 30% from here to go back to before-covid prices as if nothing had happened.
Does nasdaq reflect genuine world economic prospects, modulo it’s own growth?
What is a reasonable reflection of the reality of this disease and consequences?
Are the world’s prospects really going up? Will they keep doing so?